Nuclear Balance and the Stability-Instability Paradox on the Korean Peninsula: Implications for Peace Management through Game Theory / Seong Woo Yi
This study critically examines whether Glenn Snyder’s stability–instability paradox can be applied to the Korean Peninsula, focusing on debates over nuclear balance as a proposed security strategy for South Korea in the context of North Korea’s de facto nuclear status. Existing domestic and international scholarship has emphasized that while strategic stability in terms of nuclear war deterrence may be maintained under conditions of nuclear symmetry, such stability may simultaneously increase the likelihood of low-intensity conventional conflicts. Departing from previous studies, this research argues—through a methodological review of quantitative analyses and case studies—that nuclear symmetry cannot be generalized as either a necessary or sufficient condition for the escalation of low-intensity conflicts. In particular, it highlights the heightened probability that a nuclear-armed state may resort to full-scale war against a non-nuclear adversary under conditions of nuclear asymmetry. From this perspective, the study contends that in discussions of security on the Korean Peninsula, the structural risks inherent in nuclear asymmetry outweigh the tactical instability that may arise from nuclear symmetry.Furthermore, this study employs a game-theoretic framework that sequentially analyzes inter-Korean relations through the lenses of the Chicken Game, the Prisoner’s Dilemma, and the Stag Hunt. Through this approach, it identifies the limitations of functionalist cooperation strategies and proposes a new framework for peace management grounded in military offset strategies. Rather than treating denuclearization as an end in itself, this study underscores the necessity of a strategic shift toward the practical management of peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Keywords: Nuclear Proliferation, Symmetry, Asymmetry, Strategic Stability, Tactical Stability, Stability-instability Dilemma, India-Pakistan
The Politics of Strategic Disclosure of North Korea's Conventional Forces under Kim Jong-un / Jin-Tae Hwang, Siheon Lee
North Korea’s security strategy has predominantly been understood in terms of its asymmetric capabilities. However, considering the intensified military cooperation with Russia since 2023 and the heightened inter-Korean tensions along the Military Demarcation Line, it is necessary to pay closer attention to the role of North Korea’s conventional forces in shaping the security environment on the Korean Peninsula. This study seeks to examine the intentions and shifts underlyingNorth Korea’s deliberate disclosure of conventional forces by interpreting such strategic disclosures as messages directed at multiple audiences. Methodologically, the research analyzes military-related articles from the Rodong Sinmun covering Kim Jong-un’s public activities between January 2012 and December 2025, focusingon their association with different categories of military capabilities. The findings reveal that the strategic disclosure of conventional forces is closely linked to North Korea’s domestic and external strategies. Moreover, compared to the early years of Kim’s rule, the scope of disclosure has expanded in recent years, and North Korea’s perception of the Korean Peninsula as a “battlefield” has become more concrete.
Keywords: Strategic Disclosure, Conventional Forces, On-the-spot Guidance, Rodong Sinmun, North Korea, Kim Jong-un
Kim Jong-un's Enemy Indoctrination Strategy: The Birth of the 'Enemy' (1945-1953) and Its Contemporary Transformation / Jiil Kim
This study investigates why the Kim Jong-un regime has modernized and sustained the adversary indoctrination strategy that was consolidated during the period of 1945~1953. To this end, it employs totalitarian theory, the politics of memory, and indoctrination theory as analytical frameworks, and examines North Korea’s primary sources. The findings reveal that Kim Jong-un, as a leader who did not personally experience war, sought to compensate for this generational limitationby recontextualizing past adversarial narratives as present threats. In this process, the United States and South Korea were redefined not as historical remnantsbut as “permanent crises” and “ontological adversaries.” Such a strategy functioned as a governing technique to secure social cohesion and mass mobilization. Ultimately, the study demonstrates that North Korea’s adversary indoctrination strategy is not a mere repetition of past narratives, but a modern governing mechanism that combines the reactivation of memory with the perpetuation of constant threat.
Keywords: Kim Jong-un, Totalitarianism, Politics of Memory, Indoctrination Strategy, Permanent Crisis, Ontological Adversary
Deterrence Signaling toward North Korea and the Dilemma of Crisis Stability: Focusing on the Declaratory Policy of Leadership Decapitation / Changwoo Kang, Hyeongpil Ham
This study examines the efficacy of ‘regime termination’ and ‘leadership decapitation’ messaging transmitted by the ROK-U.S. alliance in the context of the deterrence-crisis stability dilemma amid North Korea's advancing nuclear threat capabilities. Declaratory policies pertaining to regime termination and leadership decapitation in response to North Korean nuclear employment can exert substantialdeterrent effects, as they directly threaten what Pyongyang values most: regime preservation and leadership survival. However, now that North Korea's nuclear capabilities have matured into operationally deployable threats, it must be recognized that such policies may inadvertently induce North Korean miscalculation and create conditions that undermine crisis stability on the Korean Peninsula. Consequently, the ROK-U.S. alliance must undertake efforts to refine and supplement existing policies concerning regime termination and leadership decapitation with greater sophistication, integrating policy prudence, operational meticulousness, and institutionalized crisis management capabilities to simultaneously secure both deterrence effectiveness and strategic stability.
Keywords: Regime Termination, Leadership Decapitation, Deterrence, Crisis Stability, Declatory Policy
Assessing Strategic Ambiguity in the Pyongyang Drone Incident: Theoretical Coherence and Policy Rationality / Jaekyu Jang
This study analyzes the South Korean government’s response to North Korea’s claim of a drone intrusion over Pyongyang in October 2024 through the lens of strategic ambiguity. The central question is whether the government’s positionof being “unable to confirm the facts” functioned as a genuine strategy of ambiguity. To this end, the study evaluates the theoretical coherence and policy rationality of the response. Drawing on existing debates on strategic ambiguity, the research identifies five theoretical requirements—credibility of threats, clarity of strategic preference, opponent’s calculability, message control, and audience acceptance—and applies them to this case. The analysis finds that South Korea’s response did not fully satisfy these requirements. Rather than representing a coherent strategy of ambiguity, it functioned as an ad hoc measure to avoid the binary choice between admission and denial. While the response had limited policy rationalityin managing the crisis in the short term, it was incomplete from a long-term perspective, as it carried the risks of undermining international credibility, fueling domestic political distrust, and weakening national identity. The study makes two contributions. Theoretically, it systematizes the conditions of strategic ambiguity into an evaluative framework and applies them to a military incident, thereby extending the concept beyond its traditional focus on nuclear and diplomatic contexts. Policy-wise, it suggests that strategic ambiguity can serve as a sustainable strategy only if supported by institutional mechanisms, prior coordination, and clear termination criteria.
Keywords: Strategic Ambiguity, Theory, Pyongyang Drone Incident, South Korean Government, Theoretical Coherence, Policy Rationality
The East-Up Map for Keeping China in Check: American and Japanese Geopolitical Positions and South Korea's Geostrategy / Seong-whun Cheon
Maps are a mirror that reveals a country’s geopolitical awareness and strategic thinking, and a window of opportunity to understand its geopolitical perceptions, strategies, and policies. In the era of great power competition and the new Cold War, South Korea needs to pay attention to the importance of maps and geopolitics for formulating its national strategy. This article analyzes strategic implications of the East-Up Map from the viewpoint of keeping China in check and asks South Korea to perform a high-level geostrategy. Xavier Brunson, the Commander of USFK, is an American general who has most candidly expressed the geopolitical value of the Korean Peninsula and the strategic importance of USFK. Japan, with its rich geopolitical culture based on historical experiences, is also familiar with using the East-Up Map. Strategic common ground between the U.S. and Japan based on similar geopolitical viewpoints led to formulating Indo-Pacific strategies. It is a historic mission for the ROK Government, as a strong middle power, to carry out a high dimensional geostrategy.
Keywords: The East-Up Map, Geopolitics, USFK, OCEAN Initiative, Inndo-Pacific Strategy, Geostrategy
The Background and Security Implications of Strengthening U.S. Maritime Transport Capabilities: Focusing on the SHIPS Act's Plan to Secure a 250-ship of Strategic Merchant Fleet (SCF) / Juhyeon Park
This study analyzes the purpose and security implications of Executive Order 14269, issued by the U.S. President, and the SHIPS Act, proposed by the U.S. Senate, within a historical context. The US’s maritime transport capacity for national emergencies is maintained through the National Defense Reserve Fleet (NDRF), the Readiness Reserve Fleet (RRF), and the Maritime Security Program (MSP). The American shipping industry lost its international competitiveness due to the Jones Act of 1920, which stifled competition and innovation, and the inherent characteristics of the shipbuilding industry itself. This led to a weakening of the United States' independent maritime transport capacity. The measures in this Executive Order and the SHIPS Act’s provision for securing a 250-ship of strategic merchant fleet are an extension of ongoing efforts to address this issue. US policies to rebuild the shipping and shipbuilding industries were not focused on achieving industrial competitiveness in the international market, but rather on securing and maintaining independent maritime transport capabilities. The current maritime transport system and operational regulations, as well as the contents of executive orders and legislation, support this view. The ability to transport military supplies and troops without relying on allied or private shipping vessels in the event of war broadens the strategic options available.
Keywords: Maritime Transport Capability, Shipping and Shipbuilding Industry, Strategic Commerical Fleet, Presidential Executive Order
The Theory of Victory: Its Characteristics and Application Focused on the Case of Israel's Strategic Airstrike against Iran in 2025 / Jae Yeop Kim
The victory in the arena of international politics and military affairs can be defined as “the accomplishment of political aims by using military power.” The materialization of victory requires a systemized methodology, which can present the meaning, contents, and ways for victory. It is known as the theory of victory. This paper has made an assessment on Israel’s strategic airstrike against Iran on June 2025, which was intended to devastate Iranian regime’s ambition of nuclear armament; by applying a framework of the theory of victory. As a result, Israel’s strategic airstrike was proved to be a successful operation; fulfilling major requisites of the theory of victory substantially. The theory of victory will be also able to contribute to Korea’s efforts for safeguarding peace and security at the Korean Peninsula from military threats of North Korea and other strategic challenges.
Keywords: Victory, Theory of Victory, Iran's Nuclear Program, Militray Power of Israel, Israel-Iran Conflict
A Study on the Utilization of FPV Drones Linked to Defense Innovation 4.0 and the Transition to a Female Conscription System: Focusing on the Moderating Effects of the UTAUT Model, Gender, and Experience / Jae-Yul Kim, Hyun-Tae Too
The purpose of this study was to strengthen the link between the utilization of female workers, a key component of Defense Innovation 4.0, and the deploymentof advanced drones. This study examined the acceptance factors of first-person view (FPV) drones and the moderating effects of gender and experience, based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT). FPV drones are a field requiring low physical dependence, precision operation, and cognitive concentration, making them a promising pilot area for female conscription. Empirical analysis of 538 general citizens revealed that effort expectancy and social influence significantly positively influenced adoption intention, and that both intention and facilitating conditions were key factors in determining actual usage behavior. Conversely, performance expectancy was insignificant, and facilitating conditions played a decisive role in the actual usage phase, rather than in the formation of initial intentions. This suggests that the acceptance of FPV drones is influenced by emotional factors, social atmosphere, and institutional support systems, rather than mere utility. By presenting FPV drone operation as a strategic application area for the female conscription system, this study provides practical policy implications as a technology-based human resources policy model to respond to the era of declining military resources.
Keywords: Technology Acceptance Model, Adoption Intention, Usage Behavior, Defense Innovation 4.0, FPV Drone, Female Conscription
A New Japanese Political-Economic Model in Response to the Climate Crisis: "Transformative Developmentalism" for the Coexistence of Environmental Sustainability and Economic Growth / Chang-Gun Park
This study analyzes Japan’s response to the climate crisis through the framework of “transformative developmentalism” and examines the potential for reconciling environmental sustainability and economic growth. Japan has retained the institutional foundations of the postwar developmental state and an industry- policy-centered growth model, while simultaneously incorporating the principle of sustainable development (SD) into its policy agenda. The country’s transition, marked by the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the Paris Agreement (2015), and the 2050 carbon-neutral declaration (2020), reflects a re-legitimization of environmental policy as a normative basis for industrial policy and national development strategy. The Japanese model of transformative developmentalism is characterized by the coexistence of path dependence and selective path change, the pursuit of plural values encompassing economic, environmental, and social inclusion, and the restructuring of industrial systems through green transformation (GX) alongside the formation of multi-layered governance. At the same time, it faces critical limitations, including reliance on nuclear and fossil fuels, entrenched industrial interests, tensions between industrial competitiveness and emission-reduction goals, constrained international leadership, and insufficient social transition. This research highlights the theoretical interface between developmental state theory and sustainable development, arguing that the long-term viability of Japan’s new political-economic model depends on institutionalizing multidimensional transition strategies that extend beyond technology and industry to encompass social acceptance, regionally decentralized governance, and international cooperation networks.
Keywords: Climate Governance, Developmental State, Green Transformation (GX), Japan, Transformative Developmentalism