Assessing Kim Ju-ae's Public Activities by Domain and Their Implications: A Focus on Visual and Symbolic Succession Signals, Relationship-Building and Socialization among Elites, and Institutional Formalization​

This study systematically evaluates the public activities of Kim Ju-ae, the eldest daughter of Workers' Party of Korea General Secretary Kim Jong-un, from her first public appearance in November 2022 through August 31, 2026, the cut-off date for data collection. It classifies these activities into four domains: (1) military affairs, (2) the economy and people's livelihoods, (3) diplomacy, and (4) politics, society, and culture. It then analyzes the implications of these activities for power succession and regime governance in North Korea.

The analysis finds that Kim Ju-ae's public activities were concentrated from the outset on nuclear and missile events and other military occasions. Her activities began to extend into the economy and people's livelihoods in early 2023, with further expansion in this domain and limited involvement in diplomacy in 2024–2025. In the first half of 2026, her role underwent a qualitative shift. She was positioned at the very center of the front row at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun; there were indications that she was assisting Kim Jong-un during his on-site guidance; and she was shown actively engaging in military activities, including firing weapons and driving a tank.

At the same time, North Korean media had yet to officially confirm her real name. She was given no official post at the Ninth Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea, and she did not appear at any official event during Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Pyongyang. This study does not treat these contrasting signals as a contradiction. It conceptualizes them instead as “asynchronous succession-building,” in which symbolic succession signals are brought forward while institutional formalization is deferred. To analyze this pattern, the study proposes a “three-layer framework for analyzing succession signals” comprising visual and symbolic succession signals, relationship-building and socialization among elites, and institutional formalization.

As of the end of the data collection period, the publicly available evidence is most consistent with the hypothesis that Kim Jong-un is preparing Kim Ju-ae as his long-term successor. Public sources, however, allow direct observation only of the political signals and processes involved in succession-building; they do not establish whether Kim Jong-un has privately decided to designate her as his successor. Continued monitoring and verification are needed to determine whether the North Korean authorities officially disclose her name, whether she is appointed to an official post, whether a dedicated support apparatus of her own is established, whether she becomes involved in policy matters, and whether foreign leaders recognize her as a political figure.

Keywords: Kim Ju-ae, Kim Jong-un, North Korean power succession, fourth-generation hereditary succession, Paektu bloodline, three-layer framework for analyzing succession signals, asynchronous succession-building