[Sejong Policy Brief No. 2019-11]

Jin Chang Soo

Director, Center for Japanese Studies,

the Sejong Institute

jincs@sejong.org​

Executive Summary

○ The systemic change: the ROK-Japan relationship in the ‘New Normal’ era

- Japan's compounded distrust against South Korea: the composite mix of discontent on the forced laborers issue, anxiety regarding Sough Korea’s North Korea policy, and fatigue over Korea

- South Korea remains passive in its policy toward Japan

○ Mutual distrust is the reason behind the worst collapse of the ROK-Japan relations

- Lack of will to improve the relationship on both sides

- Diplomatic courtesy aside, lack of communication

- Both are being swallowed up into the vicious cycle of nationalism and populism

○ Absence of the United States

- Trump's indifference and the internationalization of the ‘Trump phenomenon’

○ The Abe regime is tempted to improve the DPRK-Japan relationship; ‘Two Koreas policy’

- Deterioration of the relationship with ROK reflects Japan's diminished aversion to direct negotiation with North Korea

○ The ‘tough-against-tough’ situation will be continued for a while

- The situation may endure to be a ‘kingmaker’ factor for Abe

- South Korea’s diplomatic difficulty will also be continued

○ The ROK government must establish principles in our policy toward Japan

- The government must detach history from economy, and in the short run, must play a role in minimizing the economic damage. The history issue should be handled through continuous dialogue with Japan in the long term.

○ Counter-strategies for the ROK government

- Two-pronged strategy for economy: appeal to the international society while securing allies within Japan

- 1+1+@ for history: What should be the role of the government?

- The most important is determination by the heads of each government

※ Translator’s note: This is a summarized unofficial translation of the original paper which was written in Korean. All references should be made to the original paper.

※ This article is written based on the author’s personal opinions and does not reflect the views of the Sejong Institute.