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Evaluation of the Trump-Ishiba U.S.-Japan Summit and its Implications |
| February 19, 2025 |
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Myon Woo LeePrincipal Fellow, The Sejong Institute | mwlee@sejong.org
Ki-Tae LeeSenior Fellow, The Sejong Institute | ktleekorea@sejong.org -
| Background of the Japan-U.S. Summit MeetingOn February 7, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba held the first U.S.-Japan summit in Washington, D.C. This summit garnered attention as it was considered a potential opportunity to build a trust-based relationship that was previously established between former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Trump. The Japanese government and the media positively evaluated the meeting, agreeing that the summit marked a strong start that laid the foundation of a strong alliance between the two nations. Additionally, Yoshihiko Noda, leader of Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, positively evaluated the summit, he expressed that it had achieved results. Ishiba requested that Trump visit Japan later this year, which he promised to do. He hopes that Trump will attend the 2025 Osaka Expo and is expected to explore the possibility of his participation in the U.S. National Day event on July 19 during the Expo.
There are three shared issues of concern between the two countries that prompted Ishiba’s visit to the U.S. and the opening of the summit. First, the need for U.S.-Japan cooperation to counter China. Given China's growing military power and its increasing presence in the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea, and East China Sea, as well as concerns over maintaining stable supply chains in areas like semiconductors, there was a need to publicly reinforce the strong U.S.-Japan alliance with a focus on China. Second, the Trump administration’s favorable position towards Japan and their its stance towards China. Foreign and security officials handling East Asia policy, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have emphasized the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance, viewing China as a powerful and dangerous adversary, and recognizing Japan as essential in strengthening supply chains. Third, the “Shinzo Abe effect” from the former Prime Minister Abe developing a close personal relationship with Trump during his first term, to the point where they referred to themselves as "Trump-Abe," and served as a diplomatic advisor to Trump. Even though Ishiba and Abe were politically opposed, there are stories that Trump decided to meet with Ishiba upon the encouragement of Abe’s wife, Akie.
While there were various events that led to Ishiba's U.S. visit, the most important factor was his strategic approach when dealing with Trump. Despite initial uncertainty about Trump and hesitancy about holding a joint press conference after the summit, Ishiba became more confident after thorough preparation, and he addressed Trump with a well-planned strategy. This analysis will focus on agreements made in the fields of diplomacy, security, and economy during the summit and will assess the results from Japan’s perspective. This is to provide insights for South Korea in its future engagements with the Trump administration and its leaders. -
1. Foreign and Security Fields
Ishiba detailed Japan’s efforts to strengthen its defense capabilities, explaining that, even if Trump demanded a significant increase, Japan would make its own decisions and avoid unilateral demands from the U.S. Japan has already been working on fundamentally enhancing its defense capabilities through the "three security documents" such as the National Security Strategy, which was finalized in December 2022. Accordingly, Japan plans to increase its defense budget to approximately 11 trillion yen by 2027, which represents 2% of Japan’s GDP in 2022. The defense budget for 2025 is expected to rise to 8.47 trillion yen, or 1.35% of GDP.
During the summit, Ishiba promised to double Japan's defense spending by 2027, acknowledging the serious security environment surrounding Japan. The joint statement further welcomed Japan’s continued efforts to enhance its defense capabilities beyond 2027. After returning to Japan, Ishiba emphasized in an interview with the media that the defense budget increase was an "autonomous decision made by Japan, not a decision made from U.S. requests." In other words, Japan would not easily accede to Trump’s call for a significant increase and, instead of presenting the "3% of GDP" figure that had been suggested, Ishiba mentioned Japan’s intentions to continue strengthening its autonomous defense capabilities. Additionally, Ishiba explained to Trump the current status of Japan’s purchases of U.S. advanced weapons and the significance of the U.S. military presence in Japan.
Ishiba has long advocated for strengthening Japan’s self-defense capabilities and has mentioned the possibility of increasing defense spending if necessary. Therefore, during the summit, Ishiba was able to proactively mention Japan’s intentions to increase its defense spending before Trump made any specific demands. This approach, however, was not solely his initiative; it also reflects Trump’s understanding and positive evaluation of Japan’s continued defense spending increases since the era the necessary funds for defense enhancement remains a future challenge. There is significant opposition within Japan, including within the Liberal Democratic Party, to raising taxes to fund defense, and no concrete plan for securing these funds has yet been developed.
The joint statement emphasized the application of Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, which outlines the U.S.’s defense obligations to Japan, to the Senkaku Islands. This expression, first mentioned by Abe during a meeting with former President Barack Obama in April 2014, has been consistently upheld in U.S.-Japan summits. Given China’s refusal to rule out the possibility of military unification with Taiwan, the joint statement reiterated the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, for the first time, it expressed opposition to any unilateral changes to the status quo through force or coercion. This inclusion underscores the continued emphasis on the importance of the Taiwan Strait, while also reflecting concerns regarding China’s movements.
Japan places significant importance on the Taiwan issue, as underscored by Abe’s remark that “a contingency in Taiwan is a contingency for Japan.” Ishiba acknowledges that while the Trump administration has maintained a hardline stance toward China, there remains the possibility of top-down negotiations at any time. Nevertheless, he believes that the United States and Japan remain firmly aligned in their shared position of opposing any unilateral attempts by China to change the status quo through force. Going forward, the two allies are expected to enhance deterrence and response capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region, grounded in a policy of alliance reinforcement. Japan, concerned about China's maritime expansion in the East and South China Seas—including over Taiwan—will continue efforts to build a framework for immediate joint response by the Self-Defense Forces and U.S. forces. This includes strengthening coordination in command and control, and advancing joint development of defense equipment. At the same time, Japan is not expected to alter its adherence to the “One China” policy. However, Tokyo is likely to maintain and further strengthen the policy of support for Taiwan that has continued since the Abe administration.
Through the U.S.-Japan joint statement, Ishiba secured Trump’s support for multilateral security cooperation frameworks. Ishiba emphasized the effectiveness of trilateral or quadrilateral security arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region, a view that Trump was reportedly well aware of. As a result, multilateral security cooperation centered on the U.S.-Japan alliance is expected to continue strengthening. In particular, trilateral cooperation among the U.S., Japan, and South Korea has been repeatedly highlighted as a key example, and further development of bilateral or trilateral security cooperation in response to North Korea’s nuclear weapons development and missile tests is anticipated.
Meanwhile, Japan and the United States reaffirmed their shared recognition of the importance of denuclearizing North Korea and resolving the issue of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea. The joint statement underscored the need to respond to North Korea’s nuclear and missile development, which poses a serious threat to the U.S., Japan, and the international community. It also confirmed that Japan and the United States would continue to work closely together toward the complete denuclearization of North Korea. This reaffirmation of previous administrations’ commitment to denuclearization made it clear that the ultimate goal remains unchanged, even if dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea resumes in the future.
Japan also appealed to Trump with a strong sense of “urgency” and “determination” regarding the need to resolve the issue of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korea. Ishiba conveyed to Trump that, with the aging of both the abductees and their family members1), there is an increasing necessity for swift resolution. During his first term, Abe had also consistently requested that the abduction issue be raised with the North Korean leadership during U.S.-North Korea summits. In anticipation of the possible resumption of dialogue between the U.S. and North Korea, Japan hopes that Trump’s strong awareness of the abduction issue will compel North Korean leaders to take the matter seriously.
2. Economic field
The joint statement issued following the U.S.-Japan summit broadly consists of three key components regarding economic affairs. First, it reiterates the significance of economic cooperation between the two countries, confirming that such cooperation has become an indispensable pillar of the bilateral alliance. The two leaders affirmed their commitment as close economic partners to generate the largest-scale foreign direct investment and high-quality employment, while also emphasizing the crucial role both nations will continue to play in each other’s supply chains.
Second, the statement outlines the specific content of this economic partnership. It expresses the resolve to elevate bilateral economic cooperation to a new dimension through the promotion of business opportunities, substantial increases in investment and employment, and the reinforcement of industrial foundations. The two countries pledged to collaborate in leading global innovation in critical technologies such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and advanced semiconductors. They also agreed to strengthen frameworks to counter economic coercion and build resilience, jointly promote and protect the growth of a free and fair economic order in the Indo-Pacific region, and continue discussions to enhance policy coordination for more resilient supply chains. Furthermore, both leaders shared a commitment to establishing a travel framework that supports economic prosperity and declared their intention to bolster traveler screening measures and routine or secure information sharing to address issues such as technology theft, transnational crime, and illegal immigration.
Third, the statement addresses the issue of the U.S. trade imbalance with Japan by encouraging Japanese imports of American liquefied natural gas. The leaders expressed their intent to strengthen energy security by increasing exports of affordable and reliable U.S. energy and natural resources to Japan in a mutually beneficial manner. Additionally, they welcomed cooperative initiatives aimed at diversifying supply chains for critical minerals and promoting the development and introduction of advanced technologies, including small modular reactors and other innovative reactor systems.
During the U.S. presidential election period, the Japanese government expressed concerns about several economic aspects related to Trump's re-election, including the potential for increased tariffs, the U.S.-Japan trade imbalance, inflationary effects, exchange rate fluctuations, and impacts on Japanese companies operating in the U.S.. 2) Japan's response to these concerns are focused on three key areas: building a network with Trump, emphasizing and explaining Japan's role and contributions, and highlighting the history of U.S.-Japan cooperation. In addition to these preparatory measures, the summit included an investment package for the U.S., which led to a surprisingly positive and cordial atmosphere, marking a success in itself.
At the summit, it was reported that Ishiba presented a $1 trillion investment plan for the U.S. to Trump, which included investment plans from Toyota Motor Corporation and Isuzu Motors for electric truck production. Toyota, which had already donated $1 million to Trump's inauguration, had its chairman, Akio Toyoda, a high school and university alumnus of Ishiba, privately meet with him to convey a message and investment plan focused on increasing investment in the U.S. to create jobs. Isuzu's investment plan included an investment of around $300 million (approximately 45 billion yen) to establish a new plant by 2027 for manufacturing electric truck engines in the U.S. The plant is expected to produce about 50,000 units annually, and Isuzu plans to pursue long-term business expansion in North America. Regarding these investment plans, Ishiba emphasized, "by strengthening our industries, we are advancing our partnership to a higher level," to which Trump responded, "We welcome new investments." 3)
Nevertheless, Trump pointed out that the U.S. trade deficit with Japan amounts to $100 billion, stressing the need to address this issue. In response, Ishiba announced plans for the import of U.S.-sourced liquefied natural gas (LNG). Japan heavily depends on imports for its oil and natural gas needs. According to reports, Japan had already been considering replacing the 1% of its imports that come from Russia with U.S.-sourced energy, in light of Trump encouraging European countries to import American energy. 4) This move was seen as a potential response to the U.S. tariff pressures and the trade deficit correction demands. Ishiba's announcement regarding the import of U.S. LNG was made against this backdrop and concluded the third part of the joint statement mentioned earlier.
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1. Significance of the Japan-U.S. Summit
The Japan-U.S. summit reaffirmed that the alliance between the two countries would remain solid even with Trump's return. First, U.S. involvement in Japan's defense, including nuclear deterrence, was reaffirmed to counter China. Trump stated at the joint press conference, "The U.S. will provide 100% of its deterrence and defense capabilities for the defense of our ally Japan." The joint statement also included the application of Article 5 of the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty to the Senkaku Islands, the enhancement of command and control systems for the Self-Defense Forces and U.S. military, and the promotion of defense equipment and technology cooperation. Additionally, it was agreed to convene the U.S.-Japan Security Consultative Committee, involving foreign and defense ministers, at an early date.
Japan has long valued a multilateral cooperation system centered on the U.S.-Japan alliance in response to China. Although Trump was initially perceived as indifferent to multilateral cooperation, the joint statement emphasized the pursuit of "cooperation for a free and open Indo-Pacific" and outlined plans to strengthen cooperation through the Quad (U.S.-Japan-India-Australia), trilateral alliances such as U.S.-Japan-South Korea, and other initiatives. This suggests that, even under the Trump administration, a lattice-like network of trilateral security cooperation based on the U.S.-Japan alliance is expected to persist.
Second, from South Korea’s perspective, the reaffirmation of North Korea’s denuclearization is of significant importance. Trump, recalling his discussions with Kim Jong-un, stated, "We will continue to engage to ensure the safety and stability of the Korean Peninsula." Similarly, the commitment to "engagement for the complete denuclearization of North Korea" expressed by former Prime Ministers Suga Yoshihide and Kishida Fumio during the Biden administration was reiterated. In light of Trump’s recent remarks acknowledging North Korea’s nuclear capability, Japan and South Korea, which had been concerned about the potential abandonment of denuclearization in future North Korea-U.S. talks, now have a basis to continue striving for North Korea’s denuclearization through closer alignment with the United States.
Third, amid the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s reemergence, a consensus has been formed across Japanese society, including both ruling and opposition parties, to strengthen the U.S.-Japan alliance in ways that benefit Japan’s security and economy. Prior to Ishiba’s visit to the U.S., his political rival, former Abe’s wife Akie, met with Trump, and advice from figures such as former Prime Ministers Suga and Kishida, as well as SoftBank Chairman Son Masayoshi, who had met Trump, greatly assisted Ishiba in handling Trump. Even the anti-Ishiba factions within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, did not blindly criticize Ishiba’s diplomacy but offered some positive evaluations. Ishiba proactively presented conditions to win Trump’s favor before any demands were made, all the while maintaining Japan’s dignity and signaling that Japan would independently pursue discussions on future defense spending increases.
2. Implications for the South Korean Government
The most striking aspect of the recent U.S.-Japan summit is the thorough preparation by the Japanese government. Ishiba revealed in a television interview that, starting around December 2024, he held intensive training and discussions with about 10 to 20 experts in various fields, including diplomacy, security, economics, and trade, right up until the summit. Ishiba estimated that these sessions amounted to over 30 hours in total, stating that "there is a world of difference between going into a meeting unprepared and having the impression that you are ready to tackle the challenges," and emphasized that he made every effort to ensure complete preparedness. 5)
This preparation can be categorized into three main types. First, it involves identifying what Trump and his administration prioritize and formulating corresponding strategies. A representative example of this is the importation of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Japanese government, having understood through its dealings with European countries that the Trump administration places significant importance on energy security, proactively presented this as a solution during pre-summit negotiations.
Second, as seen in Ishiba's defense budget increase and Japan's "1 trillion dollar" investment plan, Japan emphasized its contributions and its intent to demonstrate support and cooperation in U.S.-Japan relations. The Japanese government, recognizing that the U.S. would focus on how Japan would align with it in the competition against China, aimed to show the utmost sincerity and commitment. It is reported that Japan actively responded to these expectations and interests of the U.S.
Third, Japan made efforts to explain its positions as convincingly as possible. This was particularly evident in the response to the U.S. Steel acquisition issue. Ishiba explained that Japan’s acquisition of U.S. Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel was not a typical corporate purchase but rather an investment (or equity participation), convincing Trump of Japan’s intentions. While the final decision had not yet been made, Trump reportedly acknowledged and accepted this explanation.
Trump, who prefers strong leaders, positively assessed Ishiba, who leads a minority coalition government, as "nice" but "tough." As discussed earlier, this positive evaluation stems from Ishiba's thorough preparation, Japan's government's efforts, and the country’s well-thought-out response plans. Furthermore, it has been pointed out that the presence of pro-Japan figures, such as former Abe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Deputy Secretary of Defense Elbridge A. Colby, contributed to the positive outcomes of the summit. Among these, the growing U.S. wariness of China is highlighted as a key factor in the discussions.6)
It is reported that Japan recognized the U.S.'s intention to test how much Japan would participate in countering China during the summit. Given this, Japan felt that it was a reliable partner with whom they could have ongoing discussions, leading to the positive evaluation. This perspective is also reflected on Japan’s side, as the summit, in the context of a long-standing strong U.S.-Japan relationship, served as a prelude to exploring whether both sides could trust one another. Ishiba’s self-assessment—"On television, he seemed like a very intimidating grandfather, but when I met him, I realized he was someone who listens. After that, I had the impression that we could have calm and honest conversations. I felt that we were on the same side"—captures the exploratory nature of the meeting. Thus, despite the lack of a clear response on critical issues, such as tariffs and the U.S. Steel acquisition by Nippon Steel, the summit still garnered a positive evaluation.
As observed, the February 2025 U.S.-Japan summit yielded positive results due to Japan’s comprehensive preparedness to respond to American demands. This offers significant implications for South Korea as it prepares for the upcoming U.S.-South Korea summit. First and foremost, the key is to clearly understand what the U.S. seeks and demands from Korea. While South Korea’s primary concern remains its confrontation with North Korea, the question of how much Korea will cooperate in the competition against China will inevitably be important, although not as central as in Japan's case. Strengthening the U.S.-Japan alliance could lead to an increased set of demands for the U.S.-South Korea alliance. That is, U.S.-South Korea-Japan security cooperation could expand beyond the Korean Peninsula to encompass regional security, including Taiwan, thereby raising concerns for South Korea. South Korea will need to consider not only discussions related to North Korea’s threat but also the role it can play in addressing U.S. interests on both regional and global levels.
Secondly, South Korea must clearly outline how much it has contributed to U.S. economic recovery under Trump and what plans it has to move forward. In this regard, South Korea should align with Japan’s approach, believing that the economic revival of the U.S. will also benefit South Korea’s recovery. The government should gather ideas from various sectors and synthesize them to create a unified direction. Given South Korea’s vulnerability in energy security, particularly with regard to diversification of energy sources, South Korea could consider strategies such as importing U.S. LNG, as Japan has done, or explore measures like export self-regulation to reduce trade imbalances. The development of ideas in these areas will require comprehensive cooperation and coordination among various sectors. In the current absence of strong leadership, South Korea should not wait for a new leadership to be determined but instead prepare to meet with Trump and negotiate with the Korean government and influential figures working together to ensure preparedness.
| Key Issues and Assessment of the Japan-U.S. Summit
1) As of February 19, 2025, the only surviving parent of a North Korean abduction victim officially recognized by the Japanese government is Sakie Yokota (横田早紀江, age 89), the mother of Megumi Yokota.
2) Lee Myun-woo, "Japan's Response Strategy to Trump 2.0 and Its Implications," Administration, edited by Kim Hyun-wook et al 『Prospects for U.S. Foreign Policy under the Second Trump Administration』 (Seoul: Sejong Institute, 2024).
3) 時事通信, 2025.2.8.
4) 時事通信, 2025.1.20.
| Significance and Implications of the Japan-U.S. Summit
5) スポニチ-sponichi annex, 2025.2.9.
6) 時事通信, 2025.2.8.
※ The contents published on 'Sejong Focus' are personal opinions of the author and do not represent the official views of Sejong Institue
